Live · 1,247 suspicious trades flagged this week

Surveillance for the
prediction market era.

TradeTrain detects insider trading and market manipulation across prediction markets using a foundational identity graph that links traders to their employers, social networks, and on-chain wallets in real time.

Built forPolymarketKalshiPredictItManifold
FLAGWallet 0x4a..f2 → @trader_jay → Goldman OTC desk
RISKCluster of 14 accounts share Brooklyn IP block
FLAGSuper Bowl streaker market · streaker IRL acquaintance
OKIdentity resolved · Polymarket whale · public quant
FLAGElection market · 3 traders linked to campaign staffer
RISKWash-trading pattern across 6 wallets · Kalshi
FLAGWallet 0x4a..f2 → @trader_jay → Goldman OTC desk
RISKCluster of 14 accounts share Brooklyn IP block
FLAGSuper Bowl streaker market · streaker IRL acquaintance
OKIdentity resolved · Polymarket whale · public quant
FLAGElection market · 3 traders linked to campaign staffer
RISKWash-trading pattern across 6 wallets · Kalshi

// product

Trade surveillance, rebuilt for markets that bet on anything.

Legacy surveillance tools were built for order books. Prediction markets need something new — one that understands real-world relationships, not just trade tape.

@trader_jay
Goldman OTC
LinkedIn
0x4a..f2
@quant_kim
IG cluster
Hedge LP
● Flagged cluster
graph.engine v0.1 · 7 nodes · 8 edges
01

Identity Resolution

Wallets, social handles, employers, and IPs collapsed into a single trader entity using Senzing + custom resolvers.

02

Connection Graph

AWS Neptune + GNNs surface non-obvious links between traders, insiders, and the entities they trade on.

03

Real-time Ingestion

AWS Kinesis streams exchange data; Alchemy ingests Polygon on-chain trades the moment they settle.

04

Explainable Flags

Every alert ships with the reasoning chain — the path through the graph that made it suspicious.

// case file · 02.09.25

The Super Bowl streaker trade.

Minutes before kickoff, a flurry of YES bets hit the "will there be a streaker" market. The streaker turned out to be a personal acquaintance of several traders. Today there's no system to catch this. We're building it.

tradetrain · alert.log

[02:09:43] stream kalshi.market:streaker_sb59 → 14 new YES @ >$0.40

[02:09:44] resolve 14 wallets → 11 distinct identities

[02:09:45] graph traversing 2-hop neighborhood…

[02:09:46] match 6 of 11 identities follow @streaker_irl on IG

[02:09:47] match 4 of 11 attended same college 2018–2022

[02:09:48] FLAG · cluster_a91 · confidence 0.94
reason: pre-event coordinated entry + irl proximity to outcome subject
→ notified: kalshi.compliance@

// scale

Built on infra that scales with the markets.

Prediction markets don't sleep — and neither does our pipeline. The system is designed to grow with volume without giving up on real-time precision.

Sub-second
Latency

Alerts fire from trade to inbox in under 200ms — fast enough to act on, not just review.

Exchange-grade
Throughput

Engineered to ingest the full firehose of every major prediction market, simultaneously.

Multi-source
Identity Graph

Trades, wallets, social, and corporate signals fused into one continuously-updating graph.

4.2×
Prediction market volume growth YoY
$0
Purpose-built surveillance tools today
<200ms
Target flag latency from trade to alert
9
Data sources fused into one identity graph

// who it's for

Two sides of the same market.

We sell to the platforms running the markets — and to the desks trading them.

Segment 01

Prediction Market Platforms

Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Manifold and emerging exchanges. Plug TradeTrain into your settlement pipeline to flag insider activity before it hits the headlines.

  • Real-time trade surveillance
  • Compliance-ready alert exports
  • Per-flag pricing model
Segment 02

Quant Desks & Hedge Funds

Prediction-market desks at quant firms and hedge funds running active strategies. Use the same identity graph defensively — vet counterparties, monitor crowded trades, and avoid markets contaminated by insiders.

  • Counterparty intelligence
  • Crowded-trade detection
  • Pre-trade signal feeds

Run a prediction market?
Let's plug in.

We're partnering with a small number of platforms to ship the first version. Get early access and shape the roadmap.

Based in New York · Backed by domain expertise